An early investor in Ether (ETH) sold their ETH holdings over the past week as the price headed towards $2,000, sparking fears of further losses. However, onchain data tells a different story as traders speculate on where ETH/USD could fall.
Key conclusions:
- An early Ethereum kit sold $136 million in ETH, adding to the pressure as Ether trades below the $2,000 level.
- Onchain data shows no evidence of older ETH investors selling en masse.
- Analysts warn that the ETH price may fall further towards the $1500 support.
Ethereum OG whale sells ETH for $136 million
Old Ethereum kit, an early investor who has held tokens since the early years of the network, sold 55,000 ETH worth about $112.25 million and 9,442 ETH worth roughly $24 million over the past week.
Related: Ether is at risk of a $2 billion downside while short positions increase around $2k
The first Ether investor contributed a total of $136 million at an average price of $2,041 per ETH, according to to blockchain data tracking tool Lookonchain.
Selling my old ETH wallet. Source: Lookonchain
However, this does not appear to be part of a wider trend, as an analysis of Ethereum supply, based on “HODL waves”, reveals that a significant portion of Ethereum supply remains unchanged over different time frames. In fact, the share of supply from older owner groups has generally increased over the past year.
Recently, the 3m-6m investor cohort saw a significant reduction in supply, falling to 9% from 13.5% on 19 May. The 1w-1m cohort of owners also saw their share of the offer drop to 2.6% from 4.76% in the same period. This suggests that most supply switching is done by short-term owners.
Ethereum: HODL waves. Source: Glassnode
In fact, the bid held by a group of investors for 5-7 years rose slightly to 9% from 8.59% on May 19.
Moreover, the chart below shows that the supply last active 5-7 years ago has seen only a modest increase in the last few weeks and is well below the activity seen in 2022 when the price of ETH fell below $1000.
ETH: Total supply of the last active 5 to 7 years. Source: Glassnode
Except for a few notable players announcing that they sold part or their entire ETH assets there is no real broad trend lately to support the argument that Ethereum OGs are selling massively.
Ether price drop to $1,500?
Since Thursday, ETH/USD has been hovering around the psychological level of $2,000 as traders prepare for another price drop.
At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $1,980, down 2% in the last 24 hours and 6.5% on a weekly basis.
“This doesn’t look good for Ethereum,” analyst Alex Marzell he said in the X post on Sunday adding:
“Momentum continues to favor the bears as $ETH approaches the next key support area.”
ETH/USD daily chart. Source: X/Marzell
Marzell was referring to key support around $1,800which analysts say must hold to avoid a deeper correction.
Fellow analyst Merlijn The Trader he said that the ETH/USD price action “maps perfectly to the Wyckoff Accumulation structure,” as shown on the 3-day chart below.
The analyst explained that ETH is currently in “Phase B of consolidation, the climax after the sell-off” and is entering Phase C, where it will be below $1,500.
ETH/USD 3-day chart. Source: Merlijn The Trader
Another analysis conducted by Echo Analysis said that a bearish flag breakout predicts a drop in ETH price towards the $1,500 support.
ETH/USD daily chart. Source: Echo Analysis
Like Cointelegraph reportedincreasing supply on exchanges and decreasing demand for the ETF put ETH at risk of another move towards the $1,500-$1,700 demand zone.
