Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said the long-term SuperTrend signal on Cardano’s daily chart has turned bullish, months after the same tool signaled the start of a steep decline. The call comes alongside fresh on-chain data from Santiment showing that major ADA wallets are now holding a record share of supply.
Cardano SuperTrend turns bullish
Martinez described the latest signal as significant because of the indicator’s previous timing. In a post on X, the analyst said SuperTrend was his most reliable tool for tracking major changes in Cardano’s direction, pointing to a sell signal from late September 2025 that preceded ADA’s 73% drop.
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“The SuperTrend indicator has been my most accurate tool for predicting long-term changes in Cardano. I have been following it closely since September 25, 2025, when a sell signal flashed that perfectly hit the start of the 73% price decline. After months of this severe correction, the indicator has just turned around.”
The new signal does not represent a guarantee of the continuation of the trend, and Martinez attached certain levels to the setup. Its first upside area is the $0.33 resistance zone, with a secondary target at $0.42 if momentum continues. The reversal level, in his opinion, is $0.25.
“To me, this suggests that the local depletion phase is over and a trend reversal is finally in play,” Martinez wrote. “I expect a rise towards the $0.33 resistance zone. If the momentum holds, my secondary target is $0.42.”
ADA Whale Holdings reached a record
The technical signal was accompanied by a separate on-chain reading from Santimento, which said Cardano’s largest cohort of wallets continued to pile up through the pullback. According to the analytics firm, wallets holding at least 1 million ADA now control 25.09 billion tokens, representing 67.47% of the existing supply.
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“Cardan’s key stakeholders have slowly but surely accumulated, steadily adding more and more existing stock to their bags, beginning in December 2023,” Santiment wrote. “Although the property has lost -71% of its market capitalization over the past 9 months, the ‘millionaire’ class of sharks and whales seem content to add more while prices are on discount.”
Santiment’s chart shows that the balance of 25.09 billion ADA is the all-time high for wallets with at least 1 million tokens. It also noted that the 67.47% supply share is the highest since July 2020. For traders, this creates a familiar but important tension: concentration among major holders can be read as conviction during a selloff, but it also makes future price action more sensitive to whether these wallets continue to pile up, stop, or distribute into strength.
Together, the two signals give ADA a cleaner short-term setup than it has had for much of the correction. Martinez’s thesis hinges on holding $0.25 as support, while the bullish case calls for a fresh SuperTrend buy signal to turn into sustained demand towards $0.33 and then $0.42. Santiment’s data adds a structural layer to that picture, showing that large holders are increasing exposure even as ADA’s market value has sharply declined.
At press time, ADA was trading at $0.2664.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
