XRP is trading in a calm range between $1.38 and $1.40, but new derivatives data suggests the calm may be masking a more volatile setup beneath the surface.
CryptoQuant analysis by Pelinay shows that XRP’s leverage structure is low and moving sideways, while its price has been relatively higher than leverage, and this has created a divergence that history has shown resolves through powerful explosive move.
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XRP is holding strong despite a sharp drop in leverage
CryptoQuant chart shared by Pelinay focuses on Binance’s estimated leverage ratio for XRP. The most important signal the chart shows is not only that leverage is low, but that the price of XRP has not fallen along with it.
The chart shows that leverage was much higher during previous phases, particularly around the big price rally in late 2024 and the push to new all-time highs in mid-2025. However, the current leverage ratio has fallen near the bottom of its range and is moving sideways.
The leverage now returns to late numbers 2024 Specifically, the estimated leverage ratio on Binance is now around 0.1. However, the price of XRP is still holding close to $1.4, which is well above its price levels seen before its breakout in late 2024. Back in October 2024, a leverage ratio of 0.1 corresponded to an XRP price of just $0.50.
XRP estimated leverage ratio on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant
Is pressure coming on XRP?
What this essentially means is that XRP is a price no more pushing mainly by aggressive borrowed positioning. This may be important because it suggests that much of the redundant guesswork has already been washed away.
However, this type of divergence rarely remains unresolved for long. The market usually deals with this in one of two ways. Price can fall on the match a lower leverage or leverage environment may start to rise again and trigger a stronger price reaction.
Another outcome is a more bullish scenario. In that case, XRP wouldn’t need an already overheated derivatives market to start its move. A similar shift occurred between late June and mid-July 2025, when the leverage ratio rose from below 0.3 to just below 0.6 in four weeks, and in the same period XRP rose from $1.96 to $3.65.
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Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto came up with something similar concluding through a completely different framework using the monthly candle time frame chart. Both analyzes point to the same idea: XRP may look quiet, but the structure is gearing up for a violent move.
XRP price chart. Source: @egragcrypto
The chart shows XRP compressed between long-term rising macro lines, with the price now sitting around the bottom of the wedge structure. EGRAG has flagged the $0.90 area as a possible trap zone, while also showing a bullish path that could see XRP back above $1.80.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
