Dogecoin (DOGE) has outperformed the broader crypto market over the past month, rising roughly 18% against the market’s 10% gain, as a large accumulation and bullish chart hint at a potential bottom.
DOGE/USDT vs. TOTAL 30-Day Crypto Market Cap Return. Source: TradingView
Key conclusions:
- DOGE whale ownership hit a record high as large transactions hit a six-month high.
- DOGE’s triangle breakout targets $0.131, with $0.088 as a key reversal level.
DOGE whale stocks hit a new high amid a surge in prices in April
Dogecoin wallets holding at least 100 million DOGE controlled a record 108.52 billion DOGE, worth roughly $11.6 billion, at the end of April, compared to less than 107.95 billion DOGE in mid-April, according to the data source Saintly.
Number of transactions and holdings of Dogecoin whales. Source: Sentiment
The accumulation coincided with a 23.50% jump in DOGE’s price, suggesting that large holders helped support the move.
DOGE/USDT weekly chart. Source: TradingView
Whale activity has also increased. On April 28, Santiment recorded 739 Dogecoin transfers worth more than $100,000 in a single day, the highest number in six months. The increase came alongside the launch of 1Shares’ physically backed Dogecoin ETP on Xetra, Germany’s leading electronic trading platform.
A breakout of the DOGE triangle indicates a 20% upside
From a technical standpoint, DOGE price has entered a breakout phase of what appears to be a descending triangle pattern.
DOGE/USDT weekly chart. Source: TradingView
In classic technical analysis, descending triangles signal constant selling pressure. These structures usually resolve to the downside, but breakouts to the upside do occur, especially in broader accumulation trends.
For example, BTC formed a multi-month descending triangle in 2021 following the collapse of mining in China.
BTC/USD 3-day price chart. Source: TradingView
The structure was leaning bearish, but the price broke above the descending trendline near $35,0000, creating pressure that led to a rally above $52,000 in the following weeks.
Applying the same technical rule to the DOGE charts, the bullish target for May is around $0.131, which is about 20% higher than the current price. The level is aligned with DOGE’s 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, blue line).
DOGE/USDT weekly chart. Source: TradingView
Such a move would push Dogecoin above the average acquisition cost of large DOGE wallets holding more than 10,000 DOGE (green), currently near $0.115. This would also clear DOGE’s aggregate cost basis (in the black) of about $0.132.
Historically, a return to these cost levels has been preceded by extended periods of growth, as more owners return to profitability and selling pressure eases.
DOGE realized price according to wallet size. Source: Glass node
Conversely, a bounce near current levels, around the 20-week EMA (green) resistance, would weaken the case for a bullish breakout. Such a pullback could put DOGE in danger of reaching its local low near $0.088 in May again.
