Ether (ETH) is trading near $3,300, and one trend in the futures market is pointing to another 10% to 25% rise. However, the market may first see a liquidation-induced drop in prices before any sustained growth develops.
Key conclusions:
-
Ether’s leverage ratio is near 0.60, a level that has historically preceded 10% to 25% spikes after short pullbacks.
-
ETH SOPR remains below 1, indicating that realized losses still outweigh gains despite recent price gains.
Ether’s leverage setup favors growth after a short sweep
Cryptoanalyst Pelin Ay highlighted a recurring structure in the leverage dynamics of Ether. When the leverage ratio spikes above the price on Binance, it leads to short-term negatives that wash out long over leveraged positions, followed by strong upside reactions.
This pattern appeared several times in 2025, especially in February, April, September and November. A similar sequence occurred in October, when a sharp spike in leverage caused a sudden drop before resuming the trend.
Currently, the leverage ratio is close to 0.60, which is relatively elevated. It is significant that leverage is not decreasing despite recent price increases, indicating a continued risk appetite. Pullbacks at these leverage levels have preceded rallies of 10% to 25%, indicating that Ether may still be poised for a sharp rally after the final surge in liquidity.
Meanwhile, Glassnode analyst Sean Rose recorded difference in the behavior of ETH holders. Despite Ether outperforming Bitcoin from its January lows, ETH’s spent to outstanding profit ratio remains below 1, indicating that total losses are outpacing profits. This suggests weaker conviction among ETH spot holders compared to BTC participants.
Related: Short squeeze hits top 500 cryptocurrencies as traders unwind bearish bets
The data suggests that ETH’s decline is overdue
Ether achieved its highest daily closing value since November 12, 2025, at $3,324. A 25% rise from here would put ETH above $4,100, but the likelihood of a smaller drop remains high.
On the daily chart, Ether formed a block order between $3050 and $3170 during the recent momentum. This zone is aligned with a control point on the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP), an indicator that highlights the price level at which the highest trading volume has occurred since September 2025.
The price could return to this level because it represents the area of fair value where buyers and sellers have previously agreed on a price.
Supporting this position, Hyblock data it shows a net long concentration above $500 million between $3040 and $3100. Such tight positioning increases the likelihood of a short-term break into this range, potentially setting the stage for a stronger continuation thereafter.
Related: Efforts to Bulletproof Ethereum Pay Off in User Metrics
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
About the Author
