After a year in which many prominent bitcoin calls for 2025 proved way off the mark, the 2026 forecast plan is framed less as “goals” and more as scenario ranges: mostly bullish, but with a long bearish tail extending all the way to $10,000.
Overview of Wu Blockchain published Dec. 29 claims that market tolerance for price-target narratives has waned after last year’s “collective failure,” but major banks, asset managers and industry executives are still putting out numbers and models on what could lead to Bitcoin by 2026.
The center of gravity is in a familiar range: roughly $150,000 to $250,000 by the end of 2026, built on institutional allocation and spot ETF channels. Bears, in contrast, are banking on macro-tightening, slowing demand or a broken technical structure, with downside scenarios clustered at $70,000, $56,000, $25,000 and the extreme $10,000.
Bullish Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2026
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has repeatedly pointed to $200,000-$250,000 by the end of 2026, arguing that institutional allocation expansion and expression-facilitating installations, particularly ETFs, could reshape the dynamics of the cycle. That framing sits alongside a more tactical note from the same trade: Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, flagged the risk of a deeper pullback in early 2026 with BTC at $60,000-$65,000 in the first half of the year, plus ETH at $1,800-$2,000 and SOL at $50-75.
Crypto industry leaders also achieved six-figure results. CEO of Ripple, Brad Garlinghouse he said expects BTC to reach $180,000 by the end of 2026 during a Binance Blockchain Week panel alongside Solana Foundation President Lily Liu and Binance CEO Richard Teng.
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On the bank side, JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou’s team set a “theoretical price / implied fair value” close to $170,000 using a volatility-adjusted BTC-to-gold relative valuation framework, positioning it more as a model-implied upper reference over the next 6-12 months than a firm year-end target.
Standard Chartered, once among the more aggressive bulls, revised down sharply: It now expects roughly $100,000 by the end of 2025 and $150,000 in 2026, citing market weakness and weakening drivers, including reduced DAT buying and slowing ETF inflows.
That neighborhood of $150,000 is crowded. Bernstein reiterated a 2026 target of around $150,000, arguing that the latest cut does not end the bull market and that the cycle is increasingly extended by institutional capital rather than limited by a four-year halving rhythm.
Katherine Dowling, president of Bitcoin reserves firm BSTR, also pointed to $150,000 by the end of 2026, linking the thesis to clearer US regulation, potential monetary easing — including the end of QT and expectations of rate cuts and continued ETF penetration, with some major banks allowing advisers to recommend Bitcoin ETFs with suggested allocation ranges of roughly 1%-4%.
Citigroup’s framework was more explicitly scenario-based. With about $88,000 worth of bitcoin in the bank draft, Citi predicts $143,000 in the next 12 months. about 62% more. based on expected ETF inflows and potential US digital asset legislation. He identified $70,000 as a key support level, with a bearish case near $78,500 and a bullish scenario at $189,000 if institutional and retail participation measures up significantly.
Arthur Hayes linked his 2026 range to the semantics of monetary policy. In his December 19th “Love Language” essay, Hayes focused on the Fed’s “RMP (Reserve Management Purchases)”, arguing that it is actually QE by another name, and suggested that Bitcoin could surpass roughly $124,000 in 2026 and test the ~$200,000 level as global money creation accelerates.
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Asset managers were less numerous and more focused. Grayscale’s 2026 outlook predicts a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, citing sustained institutional demand and a progressively clearer US regulatory environment. Crucially, “The Year Ahead: 10 Crypto Predictions for 2026,” argues that 2026 is more likely to “belong to the bulls,” arguing that institutional adoption and regulatory progress may trump the usual late-cycle pullback narrative associated with the four-year rhythm.
Bitcoin Falling Price Predictions for 2026
The bearish case in the Wu Blockchain review is not so much one thesis as multiple ways to fail.
CryptoQuant argued that demand growth has slowed enough that Bitcoin may already be in a bearish phase, with a short-term move towards ~$70,000 and a deeper pullback towards ~$56,000, around the realized price of its model, which is seen as more likely in the second half of 2026 if institutional demand weakens and derivatives risk appetites disappear.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt focused on technical structure rather than demand. He warned that the parabolic growth structure has been broken and, based on the cycle’s historical behavior and the idea of an “exponential decline” in each successive rise, said that a ~80% decline from the all-time high could point to ~$25,000 as a reference for the downside.
The most extreme call came from Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone, who warned that Bitcoin could fall to around $10,000 in 2026, roughly an 88%-90% drop from its all-time high, on a macro shift towards “post-inflationary deflation”, tighter liquidity and a broader speculative asset reset.
Barclays and VanEck avoided explicit targets, but reached a similar sentiment: Absent major catalysts, 2026 could be flat to weaker, with spot volumes falling and retail participation fading. VanEck described a year of “consolidation,” more digestion than breakthrough, with opportunities moving toward second-tier developments such as mining and stablecoin payments economies rather than major price levels.
Taken together, the 2026 map looks less like a consensus trade and more like a stress test: If ETF and institutional channels continue to converge and political headwinds materialize, six figures remain the modal forecast. If demand stagnates or macro liquidity diminishes, market discussions of the floor – $70,000, $56,000, $25,000 or even $10,000 – will be just as important for positioning as the bullish ceiling of $150,000 to $250,000.
At press time, BTC was trading at $88,027.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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