Bitcoin (BTC) is showing fresh downside risks as the deepening conflict between corporate Bitcoin holder Strategy (MSTR) and global index provider MSCI collides with a weakening technical structure.
Key data for the van:
Placing the Bull flag risks an increase in the price of BTC to $77.4 thousand
Since Wednesday, Bitcoin has been consolidating inside a bearish flag, a short-term rally that usually forms after a sharp selloff and often ends with a resumption of the trend.
The structure suggests that sellers are regrouping rather than exiting positions, especially as BTC continues to trade below its bearish 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages.
A decisive break below the flag’s lower trend line would confirm a bearish continuation, opening the door for a measured move towards the $77,400 level.
Conversely, BTC could reverse the bearish outlook if its price decisively breaks above the 50-4H exponential moving average (50-4H EMA; red wave) at around $88,655, as well as the upper flag trend line around $90,000.
Is the Strategy the target of a “hit job”?
Beyond technical reasons, Bitcoin’s downside could be fueled by growing uncertainty surrounding Strategy, one of BTC’s biggest corporate owners, as MSCI considers whether to exclude companies whose digital assets make up the majority of their balance sheets.
MSCI’s pending decision, expected by January 15, 2026, could introduce a new layer of institutional risk just as Bitcoin’s price structure is weakening, according to CryptoQuant author GugaOnChain.
Related: Supporters of the strategy and Bitcoin are calling for a ‘boycott’ of JP Morgan
“If MSTR is excluded from an index like MSCI, it will trigger billions in automatic sales of its shares by passive funds,” he said. wrote in a post on Tuesday, adding:
“Although the direct impact would fall on MSTR, the crypto market would interpret this as a sign of an institutional attack on the company’s Bitcoin accumulation strategy.”
JPMorgan also warned that if Strategy were to be excluded from the MSCI index, passive funds that track those benchmarks could be forced to sell billions of dollars in shares.
Analyst Adrian accused JPMorgan of running an “MSTR success business” to force investors into its own Bitcoin-focused investment products. He entered X post:
“They are trying to kill $MSTR to engineer a migration to their Bitcoin bullion exposure products.”
Amid growing uncertainty surrounding MSCI, Strategy decided to reassure markets of its financial resilience if Bitcoin’s decline deepens.
In a Nov. 26 statement, the company said that even if Bitcoin falls to its average cost basis of about $74,000, it will still maintain 5.9 times asset coverage over its convertible debt, a metric it calls its “BTC rating” of debt.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
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