Key conclusions:
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XRP confirms a bearish descending triangle, risking a 25% drop to $1.55.
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A bearish divergence from the weekly RSI indicates increasing downward momentum.
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Low daily active addresses signal subdued network activity and liquidity, increasing the risk of an XRP selloff.
The price of XRP has been trading 11% below its value a week ago, and the convergence of several data points signals a deeper correction towards $1.55.
XRP descending triangle hints at a 45% price drop.
The XRP (XRP) price chart has confirmed a descending triangle pattern on its eight-hour chart since breaking below the psychological $3 level in October.
A chart of a descending triangle pattern — characterized by a flat support level and a downward-sloping resistance line — is resolved when the price breaks below the flat support level and falls as much as the highest height of the triangle.
Related: XRP is ‘structurally fragile’ as a 41.5% losing bid
The XRP/USD pair confirmed a descending triangle when it broke below the pattern support line at $2.20 on Monday.
Bulls struggle to keep XRP above $2 support. A breach of this level is likely to see XRP price decline towards the measured triangle target of $1.55 by the end of November, representing a 25% decline from current price levels.
XRP’s descending triangle break reflects earlier analysis that warned of a possible drop to as low as $1.61 if key support levels fail to hold.
Heat map of Glassnode distribution shows that a large supply cluster is located between $2.38 and $2.40 (enclosed by the 100-day SMA and the triangle resistance line), where nearly 3.23 billion XRP were acquired. This marks an area of strong resistance for XRP, further reinforcing the tailwind.
XRP bearish divergence
XRP’s downside is supported by the bearish divergence between its price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The weekly chart below shows that the XRP/USD pair rose between November 2024 and July 2025, forming higher highs within an ascending channel. However, during the same period, its weekly RSI fell to 68 from 92, forming lower highs, as shown on the weekly chart below.
The difference between rising prices and a falling RSI usually indicates weakness in the prevailing uptrend, prompting traders to sell higher at local highs as profit-taking intensifies and buyers exhaust.
The RSI has since fallen to 39, suggesting market conditions are still bearish.
The chart above also reveals that XRP is facing strong resistance from the 50-week SMA at $2.32. Pressure from this level could continue to push the price of XRP over the next few weeks.
Declining XRP Ledger Network Activity
Network activity on the XRP Ledger has remained muted over the past four months. Onchain data from Glassnode reveals that daily active addresses (DAA) online are now well below the peak of 577,000 DAA recorded on June 14.
With only around 44,000 DAA at the time of writing, user transactions have dropped significantly, possibly signaling a waning interest or lack of confidence in XRP’s near-term prospects.
There are also new addresses dropped out to a current 4,000 per day from 13,500 on November 10, suggesting a decline in network adoption and user engagement.
Historically, dips in network activity usually signal impending stagnation or price declines as lower transaction volume reduces liquidity and buying momentum.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
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