Bitcoin rallied strongly in early European trade on Monday, November 10, 2025, briefly regaining $106,000 after a volatile weekend. The move comes amid a flurry of macro-liquidity signals and headlines about policies reducing risk appetite.
Why is the price of Bitcoin rising today?
Beneath the surface, traders are pointing to three interrelated drivers: a sharp shift in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet guidance, the growing prospect that the Washington shutdown saga could be instantly resolved with subsequent withdrawals from the Treasury General Account (TGA), and a new wave of policy chatter — from 50-year mortgages to potential bailout checks — that are reviving the “liquidity impulse” debate.
The most concrete development is the Fed’s Reserve and Balance Sheet Communication Center. New York Fed President John Williams signaled last week that the central bank will need to resume asset purchases soon, with reserves falling from “ample” to just “ample,” not for stimulus but to keep money markets running smoothly as the Fed ends quantitative easing on Dec. 1 and begins fully reinvesting maturing government bonds.
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“The Fed may soon need to expand its balance sheet for liquidity needs,” Williams said, stressing that any purchases would be technical, not a new QE program. QT will end on December 1 and officials are preparing to grow the balance sheet as needed to stabilize reserves.
The politics of Washington, paradoxically, is another wind at the back. Forecast markets are now significantly reducing the odds that the record-long US government shutdown will be resolved in mid-November. Polymarket shows 87% odds for a resolution between the November 12-15 range.
Why is this important for Bitcoin? Because when a shutdown ends, Treasury spending usually increases and, all else being equal, money flows from the TGA at the Fed into the banking system, raising bank reserves. That mechanical connection—TGA down, reserves up—is well documented. The increase in reserves, especially with the Fed no longer pumping liquidity via QT, is the kind of macro backdrop that has historically coincided with stronger crypto supply.
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In that mix, fresh chatter about politics fuels the “liquid imagination.” Over the weekend, President Trump and FHFA leadership floated the idea of allowing 50-year mortgages, a change that, if implemented through government-sponsored companies, would significantly reshape the duration of American housing finance and lower monthly payments at the cost of higher lifetime interest rates.
On Xu, the talk of liquidity is distilled — loudly — into punchy memes and historical analogies. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) summarized daily bullish case: “Bullish weekly close. 90% chance US ends this week (Polymarket). Fed cuts rates 1% over 18 months. Fed confirms plan to increase balance sheet! Stock fear and greed in extreme fear! Put/Call ratio bullish. Send Bitcoin back.”
James Lavish (@jameslavish) push fiscal angle: “Trump is offering $2,000 stimmy checks, the FHFA is considering 50-year mortgages, and the US government is still running a $2 trillion deficit. Please tell me again how the era of easy liquidity and asset inflation ends.”
Yann Allemann and Jan Happel, co-founders of blockchain data and intelligence platform Glassnode (@Negentropic_) linked it to the TGA: “A government shutdown deal on the horizon. This will give the Treasury the green light to start emptying the TGA. This is the main ingredient for the last stretch.”
Joe Consorti ( @JoeConsorti ) added a retail funnel callback: “Welcome back helicopter money… if you invested your $1,200 incentive check in Bitcoin it would now be worth $18,607. Don’t mess this up.”
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $106,265.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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