Crypto analyst VisionPulsed says Dogecoin’s window for a cycle-defining advance has narrowed to weeks, arguing that a failure to turn higher in November would likely end the current bullish setup and shift the conversation to downside risk in 2026.
At the end of November 5th videothe analyst positioned Bitcoin’s weekly moving average as a short-term arbiter of the trend and, therefore, Dogecoin’s fate: “By the end of the week, we need to see Bitcoin move back above $103,000 to $104,000. If that ends up happening, then you could start pushing that idea… we could start talking about Dogecoin going up. If we close below $102k, even 100k, that’s your first confirmation that it’s actually bear market.
Dogecoin needs instant cancellation
VisionPulsed anchored Dogecoin’s outlook to a broader interpretation of market structure and momentum between assets. He noted that when mapping a basket of “top-10 dominance” of former stablecoins, the market “fully returned the alternative season from 2021.” Reaching the upper band of that perennial channel “doesn’t mean it’s the top,” he cautioned, but it confirms how mature the advance has become. The analyst emphasized that he is not declaring the start of the offseason based on this single indicator; rather, it places Dogecoin’s risk in a market that has already retested a critical historical limit.
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The immediate directional factor, he said, remains Bitcoin’s weekly moving average and a cluster of supporting signals. “All eyes are still on $103,000,” VisionPulsed said, pointing to a supertrend reading that so far reflects an episode in March when the price briefly dipped below but never closed below it, avoiding a formal selling trigger. He compared this to 2021, when a confirmed close below the same instrument gave unequivocal sell signals.
The distinction is important because Dogecoin’s high-beta behavior against Bitcoin tends to compress timeframes for both upswings and pullbacks, and any decisive breakout and close below the moving average would wipe out Dogecoin’s already tight momentum window.
The momentum, according to the analysts, is “so bearish that it screams that the end of the market cycle is approaching”, although the monthly MACD has not yet crossed lower. That backlog on the higher time frame oscillators leaves room for a “very small rise”, which in previous cycles still allowed for excessive alt moves.
“In this bull market… every time we bounced off the moving average, we broke the previous high,” he said, making the conditional case that if the trend holds and Bitcoin retraces its weekly close, a final push for Dogecoin remains possible. But he declined to extend the time frame beyond the recent period: “I would say it’s probably not going to happen unless we really go back up in November.”
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Calendar overlay has a tough job. VisionPulsed explored a scenario where Dogecoin could peak in January, but stressed that the math now weighs on credibility unless growth starts immediately. “Eighty-one days from now it would be January … it’s starting to get to the point where it’s almost unworkable because you don’t want to keep stretching this out into January, February, March. At some point you have to say it’s not happening.” Refusal to “move the goalposts” defines his base case: the bull thesis only survives if November spells a directional reversal.
From a pattern perspective, he marked a head-and-shoulders-like structure on Dogecoin and introduced the vivid downside mark he used in previous updates. “That’s why this little pig is down here,” he said, referring to a chart that marks a potential capitulation zone around $0.05 to $0.06.
If Bitcoin loses its weekly moving average and confirms a breakout with a close, “the hog is only in play when Bitcoin is below that moving average,” and Dogecoin’s primary target would return to “five to six cents.” For Bitcoin, he framed a base case for a 40,000-50,000 bear market assuming both ups and downs taper from previous cycles, implying “not 77%…you’d probably get 65% to 70%,” which would align with the mid-40K lows.
Specifically for Dogecoin, he drew a clean decision tree. If Bitcoin recovers $103,000-$104,000 on the weekly close and confirms above the moving average, the Dogecoin recovery window opens again, with a shot at late Q4 through January. If Bitcoin closes below roughly $102,000 and maintains weakness, “it’s bear market time,” Dogecoin likely gravitates toward the “5 cent pig,” and “could even fairly break the pig” depending on the severity of Bitcoin’s decline.
At press time, DOGE was trading at $0.16297.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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