Bitcoin’s recovery hinges on a successful peace deal between the US and Iran as its onchain metrics show the cryptocurrency remains weak despite the recent recovery, analysts say.
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that despite Bitcoin (BTC) recently returning to $67,000, its “momentum remains weak, with declining volume and stagnant on-chain metrics indicating that the recovery lacks conviction and could fade quickly.”
He added that Bitcoin “will face a volatile path” if the recently reached peace agreement between the US and Iran breaks down, geopolitical instability and potential oil shocks follow.
“It may initially find bids as a means of protection before broader risk-off trends push it toward key support zones, highlighting how macro and geopolitical catalysts continue to dominate crypto price action.”
Bitcoin recently traded in line with the broader market as institutions bought exposure to the cryptocurrency. Its recent price rally came after US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the US had finalized a peace deal with Iran to end the months-long conflict, which is expected to be signed on Friday.
Much of the work remains unknown; however, Trump said he would see the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and that the US would lift the blockade of the strait and Iranian ports. The two countries will then begin 60 days of talks on Iran’s nuclear program and the potential lifting of sanctions, Associated Press reported on Monday.
Meanwhile, Swissblock he said on Monday that Bitcoin’s price momentum, which measures the strength of its price movements, and balance sheet volume (OBV), which measures buying and selling pressure, remain in a “weak momentum and participation regime.”
Price momentum and OBV remain at bear market lows. Source: Swiss bloc
Both indicators remain negative despite Bitcoin (BTC) rallying to regain $67,000 on Monday after falling below $60,000 on June 6, with price momentum at -1, indicating weak momentum, while OBV is at a multi-year low of -1.7 million.
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Swissblock said that in a typical bear market, such as Bitcoin is currently in, the momentum first weakens, then the OBV decreases and the price falls lower.
However, history suggests that a stronger recovery signal comes when both momentum and OBV return to a positive regime. “Until then, the risk of another retest of the lows remains on the table,” it said.
Bitcoin has already started to retreat from Monday’s intraday peak, falling below $66,000 in early trading on Tuesday.
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