Bitcoin’s decline over the weekend brought the $60,000 level back to market talkbut crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader believes the real opportunity may come at a lower price. Technical analysis comparing Bitcoin’s current structure to the Wyckoff 2022 accumulation phase shows that buying the current bounce would be a costly mistake because the actual accumulation window he hasn’t even opened it yet.
Bitcoin’s Wyckoff Setup Points Below $60,000
To understand where Merlijn The Trader believes Bitcoin is headed, it helps to understand where it has been. Merlijn’s analysis it was built around the Wyckoff accumulation model, using Bitcoin’s 2022 structure low as a reference point.
Back in that cycle, Bitcoin formed a spring around $15,500, recovering in the $23,000 area, where eager buyers flocked in, believing the worst was over. However, it was not. The price action then led to a secondary wave of selling that crushed the late buyers before the true margin phase began.
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The analyst believes that the 2026 structure developing in a similar way. His chart shows that Bitcoin is currently trading at roughly the same stage where the market previously moved through a strength sign, lost momentum, and later fell into a spring phase. The important message is that any bounce from the current region may not be the point at which traders should become aggressive in buying.
Another important message from the analysis is that the $60,000 level could be misleading. Bitcoin fell below that level during the recent selloff, and it is important as support because it is close 200-week moving average.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @MerlijnTrader On
DCA zone which could be the most important
The Wyckoff setup by Merlijn identifies five phases: Phase A stops the downtrend via a selling peak, Phase B builds cause as institutions accumulate within the range, Phase C brings the spring, which is the final shake below support, Phase D marks the up within the range with the last point of support and a sign of strength, and Phase E is a breakout and uptrend.
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Merlin’s chart places Bitcoin within this structure in 2026, with the spring phase still ahead. This is the analyst’s projection come spring to $50,000followed by a jump to the $65,000 to $70,000 range. That rebound, he warns, will once again attract bulls who will buy into what appears to be a recovery, the same trap that caught investors in 2023.
Merlijn puts the average cost of Bitcoin in the dollar zone between $48,000 and $59,000. This range is the part of the chart where he expects better long-term entries to occur. Therefore, patience is required, and the bottom line is that the best time to buy Bitcoin may come when fear is strongest within the $48,000-$59,000 range, not when produces its first bounce back above $70,000.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $62,891.
