Crypto firm Galaxy Digital has played down the odds that the Senate will pass its crypto market structure bill before the end of the year, noting that lawmakers are closing in on time to act on the bill.
“On May 22nd, we raised our estimate of the likelihood of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 75%, up from the 55% we posted on the morning of May 14th in Senate Banking Markup, Galaxy’s head of research Alex Thorn he said in a note on Friday. “We are now lowering that estimate to 60%.”
Thorn said the bill must pass the Senate before the month-long August recess that begins at the end of July, because “after that, the window basically closes.” He added that major legislation has historically not moved ahead of midterm elections due to congressional campaigning.
Many Senate lawmakers have been pushing for the House to pass the bill after the House of Representatives passed a version of it last year, called the CLARITY Act.
The Senate Agriculture and Banking Committees passed versions of the bill and it now needs at least 60 votes in the Senate to pass without lengthy debate.
“For a 60-vote bill that still needs debate, an amendment process, alignment with the Senate agriculture text, and then House action on changes, Majority Leader (John) Thune realistically needs to schedule time on the floor at some point in July,” Thorn said.
“Any later and the procedural steps do not fit before the break,” he added.
Source: Alex Thorn
Thorn said another reason Galaxy has downgraded its prospects is that there is no information to show that the bill or negotiations around it have progressed, and the ethics and illegal financing provisions are a point of contention that has yet to be resolved.
He added that Galaxy would revise its outlook if Senate leaders commit to passing the bill next month and that provisions involving lawmakers have been finalized.
The latest outlook for Galaxy came after analysts at JPMorgan said on Wednesday they see less than a 50% chance the CLARITY Act will pass this year, similarly citing a tighter congressional calendar ahead of the election.
Meanwhile, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said Tuesday that his view of the bill being passed this year is “less optimistic,” and that “DC insiders” he spoke to put the odds of its passage between 5% and 30%.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis, chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, has escalated her calls for the Senate to pass the bill, after posting at least 15 posts on X about the bill so far in June.
“The clarity bill passed the committee. Next is the floor. We didn’t come this far to give up at the 5-yard line,” she said published on Sunday.
In the snow told CNBC reported Wednesday that lawmakers working on the bill are dealing with issues, including ethics and illegal financing, that could cause it to lose support on a vote.
