Bitcoin is showing a monthly momentum signal that has emerged near several cycle lows, raising the possibility of an immediate correction enters the final phase.
The setup is based on the monthly logarithmic MACD histogram, where Bitcoin’s previous bottoms only formed when the red bars started to fade for at least two consecutive months. The same signal may now be forming again, but there is one important catch.
Bitcoin MACD repeating pattern below
The technical outlook in question is based on the monthly chart of the candle time frame, but May is not yet closed and Bitcoin is still trading in a sensitive zone below $76,000 after failing to hold above the $80,000 region, which it broke earlier in the month.
Technical analysis made by crypto analyst Washigorira focuses on a simple but historically significant feature involving two consecutive brighter red bars on Bitcoin’s monthly logarithmic MACD histogram. In past cycles, the darker red bars of the histogram indicated the bearish momentum was expanding, while the lighter red bars indicated that downward pressure was beginning to ease.
The same pattern came around previous stages of reaching Bitcoin. The monthly candlestick for Bitcoin, shown below, points to similar monthly MACD crossings in 2012, the bottom of the bear market in 2015, a cycle reset in 2019, and a recovery phase from late 2022 to early 2023. In any case, Bitcoin didn’t immediately explode higher when the first brighter red bar appeared, but the signal showed that sellers were losing control on the monthly time frame.
The closing of May is a real signal
Same configuration now it seems to be forming again. Bitcoin’s monthly MACD histogram turned deep red in September 2025, but April 2026 produced the first brighter red bar since that reversal, indicating that bearish momentum has begun to ease.
May is underway and has not yet printed its final reading. If the month closes with a second consecutive lighter bar, the pattern will repeat again, and Bitcoin’s bottom may have already arrived. “If history rhymes, the worst may already be behind us,” WashiGorira remarked.
On the other hand, a weak close that recreates a deep red histogram would delay the signal and keep the bear case alive. Bitcoin’s short-term price action is stuck between relief and weakness, and it’s currently unclear how May will close out. The cryptocurrency has so far held above the lower panic levels at $74,000, but has struggled to recapture the $80,000 zone in May.
It’s Bitcoin currently struggling with churn of Spot Bitcoin ETFs and low spot demand on crypto exchanges. None of this necessarily violates the technical histogram pattern that WashiGorira follows.
The bearish reading is that the pattern may still leave room for one final decline before the bottom is confirmed. Some technical analysts have warned that the price of Bitcoin could it still falls below $50,000.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
