According to a recent study on the chain, the Bitcoin market has entered another key phase, fueled by a growing divergence between retail sales and whale activity.
Whale positioning differs sharply from retail optimism
In an X post On May 16, crypto analyst Joao Wedson highlights a clear divide between Bitcoin retail and whale activity. The claim of this post is based on readings obtained from the Bitcoin: Whale vs Retail Delta metric. For context, the metric tracks the difference in trading behavior between large Bitcoin holders (whales) and retail traders. More broadly, it helps identify whether smart money is becoming more bullish or bearish, compared to the bias of smaller players in the Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin’s Whale vs Retail Delta hit its lowest level since January 2024, around the ETF’s launch, when a strong short whale pressure emerged during a phase of market over-optimism.
We are now seeing a similar pattern of behavior.
A large number of people are… pic.twitter.com/ESSjxPd1ND
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) May 16, 2026
According to Wedson, Bitcoin: Whale vs Retail Delta has now fallen to its lowest level since January 2024 — the same period in which spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched in the United States. Significantly, this period saw significant selling pressure from large Bitcoin holders. A market analyst notes that the same pattern of behavior that played out in 2024 could re-emerge. According to market quants, Bitcoin whales are starting to reduce their risk exposure as retail continues to buy more Bitcoin, possibly under the belief that the price floor has been established at $60,000.
Interestingly, whale activity has often acted as an early warning sign during periods of excessive market euphoria. Large holders tend to manage their risks more aggressively, especially after strong growth. However, Wedson notes that this divergence does not necessarily signal an imminent price correction. Rather, it simply points to a clearly growing state of uncertainty within the Bitcoin market. If other conditions — such as institutional demand and ETF inflows — align with this already uncertain market, the world’s leading cryptocurrency could face bearish pressure in the near to medium term.
Bitcoin Market Overview
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is $78,188. According to CoinMarketCap, the top cryptocurrency is down 1.01% since last day. On a weekly time scale, Bitcoin is also currently down more than 3% of its value. ETF tracking site SoSoValue also reports that since May 15, US BTC Spot ETFs have seen an incredible weekly net outflow of $1 billion. The figure represents the first negative weekly net flow in the second quarter, ending a six-week rally. At press time, the total net assets of Bitcoin ETFs were valued at $104.29 billion, representing 6.58% of the market capitalization.
