ETH’s recent rally has been fueled by spot demand and healthy leverage in the futures market, potentially setting Ether up for a further move towards $4,000.
Ether (ETH) futures and spot markets are sending mixed signals as futures positioning builds, but the altcoin price fails to make new highs. The data suggests that ETH traders are increasing their exposure even as spot buying supports the recovery.
Key conclusions:
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Ether’s estimated leverage ratio fell from a record high of 0.79 on January 2nd to 0.67 by January 11th, despite rising open interest.
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Overall spot CVD rose with the rise, indicating spot led demand with bullish positioning.
Open interest in Ether is coming back, but the price is lagging behind
Aggregate open interest (OI) in Ether futures has returned to levels seen before the 38% drop in Q4 2025, while ETH is still trading roughly 27% below its October 10, 2025 opening price. This divergence suggests traders are rebuilding exposure.
Supporting this opinion is Ether’s estimated leverage ratio peak to 0.79 on January 2nd before falling to 0.67 by January 11th. While OI continues to rise, falling leverage points to a healthier positioning and lower risk of cascading liquidations.
Meanwhile, the latest rise was driven by a rising cumulative volume delta (CVD) rather than future CVD. This indicates net market buying in the spot market, which is usually associated with more sustained price movements. The long/short ratio holding close to 2.66 reflects a bullish skew, with no signs of traders aggressively jumping into the market.
Related: Standard Chartered Said to Plan Crypto Brokerage, Cuts ETH Forecast
ETH Staking Flows and Macro Signals Add Tailwind
Onchain data shows increasing long-term conviction. Lookonchain reported that BitMine invested 110,000 ETH worth $340 million on January 12, bringing the three-week total to approximately $3.7 billion. With a yield of 2.8%, this could generate almost $95 million in ETH per year for the company.
From a market structure standpoint, Max, CEO of SinceBitcoin, recorded that the Russell 2000 has historically led ETH in price discovery. With the index hitting a new all-time high at 2664, conditions could favor expansion for ETH in the coming weeks.
Echoing that sentiment, crypto investor Jelle he said Ether’s major weekly resistance turning into support “looks pretty big,” adding that a strong higher low after last year’s decline leaves $4,000 as a key hurdle. Above it, ETH “could finally have its moment,” the investor noted.
Related: Bank of Italy Models Ethereum Risks If ETH Value Falls
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