Ethereum is struggling to regain the $3100 level as the price tightens and the market prepares for a decisive move. After weeks of choppy trading, ETH remains caught between weakening bullish attempts and persistent overhead resistance, leaving analysts sharply divided on what’s next. A minority still expect Ethereum to rally again and eventually challenge its all-time highs, while the dominant narrative points to a bearish 2026 marked by weaker demand and tighter liquidity conditions.
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Amid this uncertainty, the CryptoQuant report offers a longer-term perspective that cuts through the short-term noise. The analysis focuses on Ethereum’s Realized Cost of Accumulated Addresses, a metric that tracks the average cost basis of addresses that consistently accumulate ETH instead of actively trading it. Unlike the momentum indicator, this measure reflects where long-term participants are willing to invest capital over longer periods.
Notably, this accumulation cost has been steadily increasing since 2020. Even during the severe crash of 2022-2023, when the price of ETH corrected sharply, long-term holders mostly held their ground instead of capitulating. Such behavior laid a permanent foundation beneath the market.
Today, this realized price has stabilized in the $2,700-$2,800 range, effectively forming a structural cost zone for Ethereum. As ETH hovers just above this area, the market faces a critical question: will this long-term support continue to anchor the price, or will changing macro conditions finally challenge the regime that has held for years.
Ethereum’s long-term accumulation regime faces a critical test
The report argues that the Ethereum debate is changing. The key question is no longer whether the $2,700-$2,800 accumulation zone will hold in the short term, but whether this long-term accumulation regime can last indefinitely. According to CryptoQuant, Ethereum stands out sharply from the broader altcoin market when viewed through this lens.
Since 2022, most altcoins have suffered deep declines without ever forming a permanent accumulation cost base. That lack of consistent long-term buying helps explain why the recovery across the altcoin complex has been weaker and more fragile. Ethereum, in contrast, has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to maintain the long-term belief of owners through multiple periods of stress, including 2018, 2020, 2022, and even the volatility seen in 2025.
However, markets evolve and structural regimes do not last forever. Periods of apparent stability are often when underlying assumptions are most susceptible to change. From the perspective of looking into the future, two scenarios stand out.
As long as the price of ETH moves near or above the cost of accumulation, it signals that long-term buyers remain engaged, strengthening Ethereum’s relative resilience compared to most altcoins. On the other hand, a sustained drop below this cost zone would imply a significant change in behavior among long-term holders – one that could challenge the idea that Ethereum has permanently escaped the pre-2020 valuation framework.
In today’s environment, short-term price swings dominate attention, but it’s this structural battle beneath the surface that could ultimately define Ethereum’s next big cycle.
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The price is consolidating as the Bulls defend the $3000 zone
Ethereum is currently consolidating around the $3,100 level after failing to regain a higher resistance zone, reflecting a market caught between stabilization and continuation risk. The chart shows ETH trading below its short- and medium-term moving averages, with the 50-day and 100-day averages now acting as dynamic resistance rather than support. This change confirms that the broader structure remains corrective following a rejection from the $4,000-$4,200 region earlier in the cycle.
Namely, the area from 3000 to 3100 USD turned out to be a critical center. The price has repeatedly defended this zone, suggesting the presence of demand and short-term accumulation. However, upside momentum remains limited, as each bounce has been met with selling pressure near the descending moving averages. This behavior is typical of markets trying to form a base after a prolonged decline, rather than starting a clean trend reversal.
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From a structural perspective, ETH remains above its long-term moving average, which continues to trend upwards. This indicates that the broader macro trend has not completely broken, although the short-term momentum is weak. Volume has also declined during recent spikes, reinforcing the idea that buyers lack conviction.
For the bulls, a sustained retracement of the $3,300 level would be needed to change momentum and trigger a bearish structure. Until then, Ethereum appears to be locked in a consolidation phase, with downside risks if the $3,000 support fails to hold.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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