Key conclusions:
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Bitcoin rose above $90,000, but options data shows traders are not comfortable with exposure to downside risk.
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Outflows from bitcoin spot ETFs and low demand for leverage suggest investors remain wary of short-term gains.
Economic uncertainty is limiting Bitcoin’s price recovery
Bitcoin (BTC) surged above $90,000 on Saturday, prompting traders to wonder if there is enough momentum to retake the $95,000 level for the first time in seven weeks.
Even as the S&P 500 traded just 1.3% below its all-time high, investors grew concerned about worsening economic conditions, especially after electric vehicle maker Tesla ( TSLA US ) reported disappointing sales.
The technology-rich Nasdaq futures index failed to regain the 26,000 level, as the sector remained torn between optimism over artificial intelligence and risks associated with weaker US labor market data.
According to According to Bloomberg, Tesla’s total vehicle shipments reached 418,227 units in the fourth quarter, down 15% from 495,570 a year earlier. Tesla shares fell 2.5% on Friday and remain 12.2% below their all-time high.
In contrast, moderate optimism emerged from China after shares of Chinese technology company Baidu ( BIDU US ) rose 15%. The company has filed for an IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange to spin off its artificial intelligence chip unit, Kunlunxin.
The technology sector clearly underpinned the Nasdaq’s 20% growth in 2025, but traders worry that estimates have become overstretched.
BTC hits multi-week highs, but bullion remains fresh
Demand for bullish BTC positions remained unchanged on Saturday, although Bitcoin returned to its highest levels since December 12th.
Bitcoin price has remained confined to a relatively narrow 6% range over the past 20 days, leaving investors increasingly concerned as a break above resistance continues to be delayed.
The benchmark Bitcoin futures rate was below the neutral threshold on Friday, signaling a lack of confidence among bulls.
The current 4% annualized premium to spot markets reflects traders’ concerns that US import tariffs could weigh on the broader economy. On the positive side, the most recent retest of the $85,000 level on December 19 was not enough to trigger broader bearish sentiment.
The lack of demand for leveraged Bitcoin bull positions can also be linked to selling pressure in Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). As of December 15, these products have recorded more than $900 million in net outflows.
Meanwhile, gold ETFs posted seven straight weeks of net inflows, potentially signaling weaker confidence in US economic growth amid growing concerns about the government’s fiscal conditions.
Skepticism hovers near $90,000, but there is no panic
To determine if Bitcoin whales and market makers have turned bullish after a 3.2% gain over two days, it is necessary to examine activity in the BTC options market.
Bitcoin put (put) options traded at a premium on Saturday, as professional traders demanded a higher fee for exposure to falling prices.
Although the indicator remains within a neutral range of -6% to +6%, it is still far from becoming bullish, which is usually signaled by a put-call inverse distortion. BTC derivatives point to lingering skepticism near the $90,000 level, although there is clearly no sign of excessive fear.
Related: No, whales are not hoarding vast amounts of Bitcoin: CryptoQuant
Inflation remains a major source of concern as the US government plans to introduce tax incentives to stimulate the economy. Bond futures markets estimate just a 16% chance that interest rates will fall to 3.25% or lower by April, according to CME The FedWatch tool.
For now, bitcoin derivatives traders do not expect further price growth, and confidence is likely to slowly rebuild again after a one-month consolidation near $89,000.
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