According to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, Bitcoin it may have been in a bear market for two months after several of its indicators fell bearish in early November.
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Moreno pointed to price’s slide below its one-year moving average as the clearest technical confirmation, and used that signal to argue that a lower trading range may be on the way ahead.
Bitcoin technical signals, market sentiment
Moreno said the likely bottom could be near the realized price, which he put in the range of $56,000 to $60,000. That would mean a roughly 55% drop from Bitcoin’s all-time high — a drop that’s big, but smaller than past drops of 70% or 80%.
Market momentum is muted. Bitcoin started 2025 near $93,000, peaked at around $126,050 in October, and ended the year below where it started, according to CoinGeck. Trading was around $88,920 on Friday, based on available data.
Derivatives show caution before expiration
Bitcoin held the range of $87,000 to $89,000 as $1.85 billion options neared expiration. Reports indicate that derivatives volume fell 39% while open interest remained the same, a combination that indicates hesitancy rather than aggressive positioning by traders.
Technical measures are showing price compression near support, and traders are watching expiration closely as a bigger move could follow when these contracts settle. Volatility was lower than in some previous selloffs, and that left the price action tighter than many expected.
Institutional accumulation and the missing shock
Moreno and others note that the environment is structurally different. Large institutional players and regulated ETFs have been buying more regularly, and these flows are not known for panic selling.
That steady demand helped prevent the cascading crashes seen in 2022, when Terra, Celsius and FTX collapsed and compounded the market’s losses. Since those big shocks didn’t happen this time, the decline looks more controlled, even if prices are falling.
Outlook depends on macros and regulation
Some analysts still predict that 2026 could bring new highs, citing expected US interest rate cuts and friendlier policies in Washington. At the same time, observers are watching to see if bitcoin’s tighter tie to U.S. stocks will be sustainable as macroeconomic and regulatory decisions are made.
If the correlation weakens, cryptocurrencies could chart their own of course. If it remains strong, Bitcoin’s path could be shaped largely by broader market moves rather than crypto-specific flows.
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What traders will be watching
Based on the report and Moreno’s view, key items to watch are the 1-year moving average, realized price levels near $56,000-$60,000, options outcome stands outand whether institutional buyers continue their ongoing purchases.
Prices have been calmer than some past crises, but that calm masked real downside risk. Analysts and traders are divided; some expect growth to return next year, while others are bracing for lower prices ahead of any sustained recovery.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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