A fresh “XRP supply shock” narrative is circulating around X, with several major accounts circulating Glassnode’s exchange balance chart claiming that ETFs are rapidly draining liquidity. XRP Ledger validator dUNL, however, rejected the premise entirely, saying that the numbers and market structure did not support genuine allocation pressure.
One widely shared post came from @unknowDLT, which wrote December 27: “XRP ETFs are absorbing supply quickly. With only ~1.5 billion XRP left on exchanges and ~750 million absorbed in weeks, a supply shock is likely by early 2026.” The account linked that thesis to the “Clarity Act,” arguing that it would “force(s) price disclosure” and positioning 2026 as the moment XRP moves “from speculation to a global liquidity infrastructure.”
XRP Supply Shock Really Coming?
Vet (@Vet_X0), XRP Ledger dUNL validator, answered on Dec. 28 with a screenshot showing exchange balances closer to 16 billion XRP, not 1.5 billion, and framed talk of a supply shock as a static misinterpretation of a dynamic market.
“No XRP supply shock on exchanges,” Vet wrote. “1) Holders have close to 16B XRP on exchanges readily available. Enough for anyone to get. 2) If the price goes up or down, any of you who don’t have XRP on exchanges can just send yours within 3-4 seconds to one.”
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Veto’s broader point was that exchange balances and order book liquidity are not fixed quantities; they change quickly with price and incentives. In his view, this makes the “supply shock” a much higher column than the chart that implies that balance sheets are shrinking.
“Hence the XRP listed in the sell order books is also dynamic. Elastic, it can thicken or dry up in seconds back and forth,” he wrote. “Sometimes a $10 million purchase can push the price up, and sometimes a $100 million purchase doesn’t stop the price from falling regardless. Markets are too dynamic to statically chart movements.”
The discussion then moved to confidence in wallet marking and underlying numbers. Popular pundit Zach Rector ( @ZachRector7 ) asked if some of the entries looked “off,” citing one example: “Evernorth only has 86 million XRP?” Vet replied that the published list should be treated as conservative and not exhaustive.
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“Absolutely confident that these numbers are the bottom line of what’s actually in the stock market,” Vet wrote. “So these numbers are at worst on the low end and there are more exchange accounts we haven’t seen yet. I mean just check Upbit alone, let’s just look at 4 of the many xrp accounts they have. 2B XRP. This is just a fraction of Upbit, not even counting other exchanges.”
Others have argued that even if balances are large, effective float could still decrease due to custody structure, escrow rhythm and institutional accumulation. Dman Trader (@dmantrader) pointed to the mechanics of monthly escrow and claimed that ETFs are held in dedicated XRPL wallets, describing them as “locked in 1% of the total supply already in a few months”, while also claiming that CEX and OTC stocks aimed at clients are difficult to measure.
Vet acknowledged the logistical angle — “Ripple notes in XRP report that they’re facilitating supply transfers for ETFs” — but argued that a true supply shock implies an imminent allocation imbalance, not just ongoing accumulation.
“A supply shock implies an imbalance in market distribution. Which is not true,” Vet wrote. “Of course, if someone tomorrow says I want 30B XRP now, there will be a supply shock. But this person aside, with 16B and many more billions in Ripple hot accounts, it’s very fair to say we have enough for everyone to get their hands on XRP.”
For now, the thread draws a clear fault line: influencer-driven balance charts framing scarcity versus the infrastructure-side argument that XRP liquidity is elastic, quickly mobilized, and unlikely to “shock” without an unusually large, emergency supply.
At press time, XRP was trading at $1.8982.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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