As Bitcoin continues to underperform in the fourth quarter of 2025, its investors have had more reasons to unload and reduce their holdings. Among those investors is a certain cohort, his short-term holders (STH), who have been facing the heat over an extended period.
STH MVRV in dark red for 60 consecutive days
In a recent post on Platform X, market quant Burak Kesmeci discovered an interesting perspective on the current market state for the most reactive bitcoin investors — the short-term holders. Kesmeci’s post revolves around the STH MVRV (market value to realized value) metric.
For context, this metric compares BTC’s market value to its realized value, thus serving as a means of tracking whether short-term Bitcoin investors are making a profit or a loss on average.
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A reading less than the neutral “1” level usually means STHs are in the red. Depending on the depth of this value, it could also foreshadow capitulation events. On the other hand, values above 1 reveal that short-term investors are in profit. The higher the value, the more likely profit-making events will follow.
In his post on X, the online expert shared that the STH MVRV was in the deep red region for a full 60 days. Kesmeci explained that short-term investors in the leading cryptocurrency are now facing the highest level of “patience test” they have ever witnessed during 2025.
Namely, extended periods of negative MVRV readings are often associated with increased market stress. Being the most reactive cohort of investors in the market, the price of Bitcoin could witness the effect of capitulation-driven sell-offs.
However, the opposite is also possible. In a scenario where the bearish pressure subsides completely, extended negative readings could be a sign of imminent market stabilization.
Bitcoin remains below the 111-day SMA — what this means for the price
To lend more weight to his on-chain discovery, Kesmeci also followed up with a key technical observation of Bitcoin’s price movement. According to the analyst, Bitcoin traded below the 111-day simple moving average (SMA 111) during the same period.
This alignment between on-chain and technical analysis therefore serves to reinforce a clear story; Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation or correction phase. This is contrary to the belief that the top cryptocurrency could be at the beginning of a significant uptrend.
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From a broader perspective, the future trajectory of Bitcoin is not entirely clear. Macro events, along with renewed spot demand, could prove key for the cryptocurrency going forward.
This market phenomenon could determine whether BTC falls deeper into the decline or begins its recovery journey. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $87,380, with no significant changes over the past day.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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