The ongoing Bitcoin price play now heading into a bear market one of the burning questions in the crypto industry. Bitcoin is currently trading between $87,700 and $88,000, down 30% from its all-time high reached in October 2025.
Special price only often leaves room for discussion, but on-chain data is starting to offer clearer guidance. In particular, CryptoQuant’s analysis shows that Bitcoin’s internal market structure is changing in a way that aligns more with early bear market conditions.
BCMI falls below equilibrium
An important bear market signal is from the Bitcoin Composite Market Indexor BCMI, which is a composite indicator that combines price behavior and momentum on the chain. According to Woo Minkyu, a verified analyst on the CryptoQuant platform, Bitcoin’s BCMI returned to the 0.5 level in October. This was initially interpreted as a cooling phase rather than the final peak of the cycle. At the time, the assumption was that Bitcoin was consolidating after a prolonged rally.
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However, that view weakened as market conditions worsened. In particular, Bitcoin’s price movement has declined significantly since late October, and the BCMI has fallen in tandem with the price. This collective decline suggests that the market has reset not only through time but also through valuation and participation.
As shown in the chart below, the BCMI has now slipped below its equilibrium zone, a development known to coincide with transitions into bearish phases, where upside is usually limited and downside risks are rising.
A closer look at previous Bitcoin cycles adds more context to the current setup. In 2019 and 2023, significant cycle bottoms occurred only after the BCMI declined to the 0.25 to 0.35 range. These levels reflected a deep compression of sentiment, washed-out positioning and a structural market reset.
According to current readings, Bitcoin’s combined market index is less than 0.4. This reading is below balance, but still well above the lower zone. This opens up the possibility that the market is moving into a bearish phase, rather than just experiencing a pullback.
According to the analyst, a more permanent bottom could only form if history repeats itself and the BCMI reaches 2019-2023 levels again.
Weak sentiment contributes to bearish market evidence
Market sentiment also supports the idea that Bitcoin is getting deeper and deeper into the bearish phase. There has been very little optimism in recent weeks, with traders showing little confidence that the price has found a sustainable bottom. CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently posting reading of 28, which places feelings firmly in the zone of fear.
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This backdrop of bad mood was confirmed by industry comments. For example, Changpeng Zhao recently noticed that many investors they just wish they had bought Bitcoin early when prices were already at an all-time high. In practice, these early accumulations have occurred in periods like the present, when fear, uncertainty and doubt dominate market psychology.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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