A potential initial public offering (IPO) next year by cryptocurrency exchange Kraken could attract fresh capital from traditional financial ( TradFi ) investors.
Bitcoin hit an all-time high above $126,000 on October 6, but hasn’t recovered from the $19 billion liquidation event that hit the industry a few days later. At the time of writing, the world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading at $87,015 per coin, down 6% in two weeks, according to CoinGeck.
Still, Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of 50T Funds, argued that the Bitcoin (BTC) bull market is “still in the middle stage.” He added that Kraken’s IPO and growing number of (M&A) could provide the necessary incentives to bring in new capital from TradFi.
Kraken has raised $800 million in funding to reach a valuation of $20 billion, the stock exchange announced on November 18. allegedly filed for an IPO in the US earlier in November.
Not all analysts are convinced that the growth cycle will continue. Fidelity’s director of global macroeconomic research, Jurrien Timmer, expects a down year for Bitcoin in 2026.
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Crypto industry watchers are divided over the continuation of the growth cycle in 2026
Tapier’s prediction contrasts with views shared by Timmer, who expects a down year could see Bitcoin bottom out locally around $65,000.
“Bitcoin winters lasted about a year, so I think 2026 could be a ‘free year’ (or ‘free year’) for Bitcoin. Support is at $65-75k,” Timmer wrote on Thursday X publish.
While Bitcoin’s four-year cycle provided an “initial rhythm,” market movements are now dictated by more fundamental drivers, including global liquidity and continued sovereign adoption, according to Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of Axis, an onchain quantitative returns platform that manages $100 million in live capital.
“It’s not surprising to see institutional caution as we close out 2025,” as Fidelity’s pullback call “is a valid reminder that volatility is still on the table,” Xue told Cointelegraph, adding:
“However, framing 2026 only as a year of negative consequences could mean missing the forest for the trees.”
“If global liquidity continues to weaken, that $75K support could actually end up as a higher low in a longer supercycle structure,” he explained, adding that the four-year cycle is “evolving into a broader secular trend” dictated by macroeconomic forces.
The industry’s top-performing traders by returns, tracked as “smart money” traders on Nansen’s blockchain intelligence platform, also bet on short-term market declines.
The smart money was net short all top cryptocurrencies except for Avalanche (AVAX) token and memecoin launchpad Pump.fun’s (PUMP) coin, according to Nansen.
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