According to the analyst, Bitcoin is in a liquidity system that has shown itself before major upswings. Prices are not rising yet. At press time Bitcoin trading around $104,500, down 0.5% from the previous day.
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Traders spotted a drop of about 1.8% earlier that pushed the price near $103,400 and briefly touched $102,850 during the move.
The stablecoin signal points towards accumulation
CryptoQuant analyst Moreno points to Stablecoin supply ratioor SSR, as the first clear indicator. SSR compares the market cap of Bitcoin to the total market cap of stablecoins. It fell back into the 13 range.
Based on historical readings, that 13 area coincided with market lows in mid-2021 and at several points during 2024. Reports show that when the SSR fell to similar levels, liquidity quietly built and buying followed a period of low volatility.
A liquidity pattern emerged before every rise in Bitcoin — and has returned
“We’ve witnessed a liquidity configuration that has only appeared a handful of times since 2020, and each instance marked a pivotal moment for Bitcoin’s trajectory.” – From @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/vWKcCkyn55
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 11, 2025
Binance Reserve trends add another layer
Another metric Moreno points out comes from Binance. On that exchange, stablecoin balances increase while Bitcoin reserves decrease. In simple terms: more cash-like tokens are on the exchange and fewer coins are held there.
That pattern has appeared only a few times since 2020, according to the data he provided. Each time, the movement suggested that capital was waiting on the sidelines and that owners were moving coins from exchanges to longer-term storage.
A quiet market can hide big moves
The current trading backdrop is cautious. Many investors expected a lift following the news that the US Congress had approved short-term federal funding by January 30, but the cryptocurrency did not increase with other risky assets.
Part of the capital returned to shares. At the same time, large holders took profits after recent highs and momentum cooled. That combination shows how macro events can change flows without immediately turning into cryptocurrency purchases.
The risk is still there — the structure could break
Moreno warns that this liquidity zone acts as the final structural support. If the metric breaks decisively, it could signal a deeper reset before any sustained recovery.
In that scenario, buying would likely be delayed and volatility would increase. This is not a guaranteed outcome, but it is a clear risk that traders are watching closely.
Outlook: Limited downside, growing upside
Based on reports and signals in the chain, Moreno believes the risk-reward ratio favors buyers at these levels. As reasons for such a point of view, he points to the increased supply of stablecoins and the drop in BTC reserves on the stock exchange.
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Historical patterns suggest that the last three months of the year often bring gains for Bitcoin, but past behavior does not bode well for future returns.
So far, indicators show capital parked in stablecoins and fewer coins available on major exchanges. This creates a setup where fresh buying could quickly push the market if sentiment changes.
However, the opposite is possible: a break below these levels would reshape the cycle and force many participants to reconsider their positions. The markets will decide which way to go next.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
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