Bitcoin stepped into its most significant month for gains in history – November – with an average gain of 42.51% since 2013 – meaning Bitcoin could top $160,000 this month if history is anything to go by.
However, the cryptoanalyst noted that several macroeconomic factors are also at play.
“I think seasonal charts are very important, but they have to be combined with a lot of other factors,” said crypto analyst Markus Thielen of 10x Research.
Looking ahead, there is an expectation that the US Fed will cut interest rates further, and the US and China are working on a trade deal; both developments could be favorable for Bitcoin. However, the government shutdown and US tariffs continue to add to economic uncertainty.
Here’s a rundown of some of the key events to watch out for in the coming weeks.
The US and China are easing trade tensions
Thursday’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is seen as a positive step towards ending trade tensions between the US and China.
Trump described the talks with the Chinese president in South Korea as “unbelievable”. Part of the talks included Trump agreeing to cut tariffs on China in exchange for a crackdown on Beijing’s fentanyl trade, continued purchases of U.S. soybeans and lifting restrictions on rare earth exports for a year.
Trump told reporters he expected a trade deal with China “soon.”
Trump’s threat of tariffs against China has been blamed for the recent cryptocurrency crash, which saw $19 billion liquidated in just 24 hours on October 11. Since then, the crypto market has struggled to recover.
However, Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the China Initiative, told CBC News that the meeting was more of a “pause” in the trade war, but it was far from over.
The US Fed will cut rates, end quantitative easing
Just a few days ago, Fed officials voted for another quarter-point interest rate cut, taking the key interest rate to its lowest level in three years.
The date of the Fed’s next meeting is December 10, 2025. Data from CME’s FedWatch — a tool used to measure expectations for a Federal Reserve rate change — shows that traders are pricing in a 63% probability of a rate cut.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell surprised markets Wednesday by saying the move was “not a foregone conclusion.”
The Fed’s tapering is seen as a positive for Bitcoin, as the lower cost of borrowing money has historically encouraged investors to trade riskier assets, such as cryptocurrencies.
Adding to this is the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to end its quantitative easing (QT) program on December 1st. QT is a central bank balance sheet contracting process. The goal of QT is to cool down an overheated economy and prevent inflation from growing too fast.
Contrary to this, quantitative easing, involves central banks injecting more cash into the economy, and is considered good for crypto, as some of that money flows into alternative assets.
The US government shutdown continues
The US government shutdown is about to enter its fifth week, approaching the longest in US history, as US Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked over the government’s spending plan.
Related: Bitcoin 4 year cycle not dead, expect 70% drop next crash: VC
On Thursday, Trump called on Republicans to end the “Senate filibuster” rule, which allows a small group of senators to block majority action, which he blames for shutting down the government.
“THE CHOICE IS CLEAR – INITIATE THE ‘NUCLEAR OPTION’, GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTER AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The shutdown is seen as a necessary step for the SEC to give the final green light to several crypto ETFs, along with the critical advancement of the Crypto Market Structure Act, also known as the CLARITY Act.
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