Key conclusions:
-
Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio falls below its own Average of 365 days it signals a local bottom, historically preceding large price rises.
-
The rotation of capital out of gold could fuel Bitcoin’s recovery, according to analysts.
Bitcoin (BTC) could be poised for a sustained recovery in the coming weeks, as a key valuation metric sends a bullish signal. The BTC market could be forming a “cyclical bottom”, according to crypto analysts.
Bitcoin’s MVRV Metric Signals “Local Bottom”
Bitcoin’s market value to realized value ratio (MVRV), an indicator that measures whether an asset is overvalued, recently fell below its 365-day moving average, indicating that BTC may be at a local bottom, according to CryptoQuant analyst ShayanMarkets.
Related: Bitcoin Chart Echoes 1970s Soybean Bubble: Peter Brandt
“The MVRV ratio currently stands near 1.9, slightly below its 365-day moving average,” analyst he said in a QuickTake analysis on Monday, adding:
“Historically, every time the ratio has fallen below the 365 SMA, it has signaled a buying opportunity and a local bottom signal.”
The last time this happened was in mid-2021, June 2022, and early 2024, before BTC price spikes of 135%, 100%, and 196%, respectively.
This consistent pattern suggests that Bitcoin is once again “entering an undervalued phase, where long-term holders tend to start accumulating,” the analyst wrote.
With the price of BTC down 18% to $103,530 on Friday from a record high of $126,000, MVRV fell, “reflecting reduced speculative excess and growing long-term confidence,” the analyst said, adding:
“If this metric begins to turn upward from current levels, it could confirm that the recent selloff was a cyclical bottom formation, supporting a renewed bullish phase in the fourth quarter.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin price could embark on an extended recovery, with analysts predicting near-term targets around $115,000 and even as high as $190,000 if the latest phase of the bull run unfolds.
Capital rotation from gold to increase the price of BTC
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView found gold down 8.5% from Monday’s all-time high of $4,380.
That’s “a pretty sharp move for gold,” MN Trading Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe he said on Tuesday X Lent.
If this continues, it would mean that gold has “currently peaked,” a sign that a “rotation” into Bitcoin and altcoins may be starting, van de Poppe wrote.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September is expected to be released on Friday, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“The soft CPI print should prompt a potential rate cut and an end to the government shutdown,” the analyst said, adding:
“Bitcoin will take off as risk appetite comes back into play.”
Meanwhile, Bitwise analysts suggest that a 5% shift from gold to Bitcoin could push the price of Bitcoin to $240,000.
Bitwise says 5% capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin could push BTC to $242,391 👀 pic.twitter.com/FwvjneWhdX
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 21, 2025
As reported by Cointelegraph, the ongoing pullback in gold could spark a Bitcoin recovery, with technical analysis predicting a BTC price rally to $150,000-$165,000 by the end of the year.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
About the Author
